Shafaat Choyon.

Renewal outreach planner

How many people could lose coverage at renewal for paperwork alone, and how many can outreach keep? Enter the people due, the share renewed automatically and your contact and completion rates to see who is at risk, coverage outreach can keep, who is still at risk and the outreach workers you need in the response window. Load an example, from Medicaid work rules in Michigan to a stipend re-verification in Bangladesh.

Built from my own work: Delivering a government stipend to 10 million beneficiaries

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At risk with no outreach-
Kept by outreach-
Still at risk-
Outreach workers needed-

FormulaAt risk = due × (1 − automatic) × miss rate · kept = at risk × reach × completion · workers = people to contact × attempts ÷ (contacts a day × days)

What to do next

    Show the working, step by step

      Where I used this

      At SureCash we delivered a government stipend to about 10 million beneficiaries. At that scale every extra step you ask of a person becomes thousands who drop out, so the work is checking what you already know first and making the remaining step as easy as possible.

      Read the case: Delivering a government stipend to 10 million beneficiaries →

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      Why paperwork, not eligibility, decides most losses

      • The unwinding showed it. When pandemic Medicaid protections ended, about 25 million people were disenrolled, and about 69% of them for procedural reasons such as an unreturned form, not because they were found ineligible.
      • Automatic renewal is the cheapest outreach. About 61% of people who kept Medicaid were renewed from data the state already held. Every point you add there is a person who never needs a call.
      • Reach is not completion. Count the people who finish the step after you contact them, not the letters you sent.
      • Work the deadline backwards. With a 30-day notice window, the staff you need is set by the days you have, not the year.

      The same problem in Bangladesh and the US

      In the US the paperwork is a Medicaid renewal or a work-hours check. In Bangladesh it is a stipend or allowance re-verification, a mobile-wallet account check or a national ID match. The fix is the same in both: match the data you already have, flag the people who are exempt, send one plain instruction with one deadline, and send a trusted person to the ones who do not respond. More in Medicaid work rules are a paperwork test, not a work test.

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      Running a renewal or verification drive?

      Bring your numbers to a free 30-minute call, and I will help you plan the data matching, the messages and the outreach team.

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      Questions

      Why do people lose Medicaid at renewal?

      Mostly for paperwork. During the Medicaid unwinding, about 25 million people were disenrolled, and about 69% of those were for procedural reasons, such as a form not returned in time, rather than being found ineligible.

      What is ex parte renewal?

      Renewing someone automatically using data the agency already holds, such as wage, tax or SNAP records, so the person does not have to send anything. About 61% of people who kept Medicaid during the unwinding were renewed this way.

      How many outreach workers do I need for a renewal drive?

      Multiply the people who must act by the contact attempts per person, then divide by the contacts one worker can make a day times the working days in the window. For 30,000 people, 3 attempts, 60 contacts a day and 22 working days, that is about 68 workers.

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